Distributed Systems

Dr. Dilek Düştegör

Assistant Professor

  • room number: 0414
  • e-mail: d.dustegor [at] rug.nl
  • personal website: Dilek Düstegör

Research

I am interested in bridging the gaps between research, development and implementation using AI and automation:

  • In the field of engineering: modeling, design and analysis of large scale / networked systems using IoT and ML techniques; Smart city/environments applications
  • In the field of education: technology enhanced education

Recent publications

  1. Bayesian Optimization Algorithm-Based Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches for Forecasting Short-Term Electricity Demand (, , and ), In Energies 2022, Vol. 15, Page 3425, Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, volume 15, .

    Abstract

    This article focuses on developing both statistical and machine learning approaches for forecasting hourly electricity demand in Ontario. The novelties of this study include (i) identifying essential factors that have a significant effect on electricity consumption, (ii) the execution of a Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA) to optimize the model hyperparameters, (iii) hybridizing the BOA with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous inputs (SARIMAX) and nonlinear autoregressive networks with exogenous input (NARX) for modeling separately short-term electricity demand for the first time, (iv) comparing the model’s performance using several performance indicators and computing efficiency, and (v) validation of the model performance using unseen data. Six features (viz., snow depth, cloud cover, precipitation, temperature, irradiance toa, and irradiance surface) were found to be significant. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of five consecutive weekdays for all seasons in the hybrid BOA-NARX is obtained at about 3%, while a remarkable variation is observed in the hybrid BOA-SARIMAX. BOA-NARX provides an overall steady Relative Error (RE) in all seasons (1 6.56%), while BOA-SARIMAX provides unstable results (Fall: 0.73 2.98%; Summer: 8.41 14.44%). The coefficient of determination (R2) values for both models are >0.96. Overall results indicate that both models perform well; however, the hybrid BOA-NARX reveals a stable ability to handle the day-ahead electricity load forecasts.


    Keywords: Bayesian optimization algorithm, NARX, SARIMAX, electricity demand, short, term forecast

    BibTeX


    urldoi
  2. Employability prediction: a survey of current approaches, research challenges and applications (, , , and ), In Journal of Ambient Intelligence and Humanized Computing, .

    Abstract

    Student employability is crucial for educational institutions as it is often used as a metric for their success. The job market landscape, however, more than ever dynamic, is evolving due to the globalization, automation, and recent advances in Artificial Intelligence. Identifying the significant factors affecting employability, as well as the requirements of the new job market can tremendously help all stakeholders. Knowing their weaknesses and strengths, students might better plan their career. Instructors can focus on more appropriate skill sets to meet the requirements of rapidly evolving labor markets. Program managers can anticipate and improve their curriculum to build new competencies, both for educating, training and reskilling current and future workers. All these combined efforts certainly can contribute to increasing employability. Data driven and machine learning techniques have been extensively used in various fields of educational data mining. More and more studies are investigating data mining techniques for the prediction of employability. Yet, these studies show a lot of variation, for instance, with respect to the data used, the methods adopted, or even the research questions posed. In this paper, we aim to depict a clear picture of the art, clarifying for each standard step of data mining process, the differences, and similarities of these studies, along with further suggestions. Thus, this survey provides a comprehensive roadmap, enabling the application of data mining for employability.

    BibTeX


    doi
  3. Iot based smart water quality monitoring: Recent techniques, trends and challenges for domestic applications (, and ), volume 13, .

    Abstract

    Safe water is becoming a scarce resource, due to the combined effects of increased population, pollution, and climate changes. Water quality monitoring is thus paramount, especially for domestic water. Traditionally used laboratory-based testing approaches are manual, costly, time consuming, and lack real-time feedback. Recently developed systems utilizing wireless sensor network (WSN) technology have reported weaknesses in energy management, data security, and communication coverage. Due to the recent advances in Internet-of-Things (IoT) that can be applied in the development of more efficient, secure, and cheaper systems with real-time capabilities, we present here a survey aimed at summarizing the current state of the art regarding IoT based smart water quality monitoring systems (IoT-WQMS) especially dedicated for domestic applications. In brief, this study probes into common water-quality monitoring (WQM) parameters, their safe-limits for drinking water, related smart sensors, critical review, and ratification of contemporary IoT-WQMS via a proposed empirical metric, analysis, and discussion and, finally, design recommendations for an efficient system. No doubt, this study will benefit the developing field of smart homes, offices, and cities.

    BibTeX


    doi
  4. Prediction of academic performance at undergraduate graduation: Course grades or grade point average? ( and ), In Applied Sciences (Switzerland), volume 10, .

    Abstract

    Predicting the academic standing of a student at the graduation time can be very useful, for example, in helping institutions select among candidates, or in helping potentially weak students in overcoming educational challenges. Most studies use individual course grades to represent college performance, with a recent trend towards using grade point average (GPA) per semester. It is unknown however which of these representations can yield the best predictive power, due to the lack of a comparative study. To answer this question, a case study is conducted that generates two sets of classification models, using respectively individual course grades and GPAs. Comprehensive sets of experiments are conducted, spanning different student data, using several well-known machine learning algorithms, and trying various prediction window sizes. Results show that using course grades yields better accuracy if the prediction is done before the third term, whereas using GPAs achieves better accuracy otherwise. Most importantly, variance analysis on the experiment results reveals interesting insights easily generalizable: individual course grades with short prediction window induces noise, and using GPAs with long prediction window causes over-simplification. The demonstrated analytical approach can be applied to any dataset to determine when to use which college performance representation for enhanced prediction.

    BibTeX


    doi
  5. Predicting academic success in higher education: literature review and best practices ( and ), In International Journal of Educational Technology in Higher Education, volume 17, .

    Abstract

    © 2020, The Author(s). Student success plays a vital role in educational institutions, as it is often used as a metric for the institution’s performance. Early detection of students at risk, along with preventive measures, can drastically improve their success. Lately, machine learning techniques have been extensively used for prediction purpose. While there is a plethora of success stories in the literature, these techniques are mainly accessible to “computer science”, or more precisely, “artificial intelligence” literate educators. Indeed, the effective and efficient application of data mining methods entail many decisions, ranging from how to define student’s success, through which student attributes to focus on, up to which machine learning method is more appropriate to the given problem. This study aims to provide a step-by-step set of guidelines for educators willing to apply data mining techniques to predict student success. For this, the literature has been reviewed, and the state-of-the-art has been compiled into a systematic process, where possible decisions and parameters are comprehensively covered and explained along with arguments. This study will provide to educators an easier access to data mining techniques, enabling all the potential of their application to the field of education.


    Keywords: Data mining, Guidelines, Higher education, Prediction, Review, Student success

    BibTeX


    doi

(For more publications go to Dilek's publication page)